TD 22 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Beta yesterday after Hurricane Hunters found winds sustained above 40 mph. An impressive burst of thunderstorm activity yesterday evening brought the system’s winds up to 60 mph which is the current advisory intensity as of NHC’s 10 AM CDT update on 9/19.

Beta will drift west over the coming days as high pressure builds in over the Plains. During this time, it will continue to experience the dry air and wind shear that’s currently pushing most of its convective activity northeast of the center. However, the shear will relax a bit tomorrow night and Monday morning as the storm is approaching the coastline. This may allow for a brief period of intensification, possibly into a hurricane. This is what the current NHC forecast calls for as of their 10 AM 9/19 advisory.

Much more important than the storm’s intensity upon landfall will be its slow movement and the associated heavy rain threat. Thankfully, due to the southwesterly shear discussed above, Beta’s heaviest rain will likely fall just offshore. That said, portions of the TX and LA coast could see rainfall totals of 6-12” or more as Beta wanders throughout the region this week. We’ll have to keep a close eye on forthcoming adjustments to the storm’s track to pin down exactly where the heaviest rain might fall, and how much of it there might be.

Several days of onshore winds ahead of Beta will lead to some storm surge along the Gulf Coast from Brownsville TX all the way to Mississippi.

Current forecasts show surge values of 2-4 feet for most of this area. That’s enough to cause some disruptions but shouldn’t be enough for widespread/major issues. Keep in mind that may change for some areas if Beta strengthens a bit more before landfall.

-Jack