While Major Hurricane Teddy spins through the open Atlantic, the disturbance tagged 90L in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico was named Tropical Depression Twenty-Two today after hurricane hunters found a closed center of circulation near the system’s cluster of thunderstorm activity.

TD 22 is located in a region of weak steering currents so it won’t be moving anywhere quickly. Model guidance shows the system drifting a little northeast in the next couple days before perhaps wandering back to the west early next week. As we saw with Sally, these slow-moving systems wandering in regions without strong steering currents are really hard from a track forecast perspective. So we don’t know how close the storm might get to the Texas coastline.

If it tracks a bit farther west, heavy rain, gusty winds, and some storm surge would be possible in parts of southern Texas. If the system wobbles a bit farther east, impacts could be relatively minimal. As far as intensity goes, the official NHC forecast currently calls for the system to gradually intensify into a strong tropical storm over the next couple days. The environment should be generally favorable for at least modest intensification before a surge of dry air arrives Monday.

The system’s longer-term future is quite uncertain, but there are some signs that a turn back to the northeast may occur later next week. If that were to be the case, Louisiana may also need to watch out for possible impacts.

Much more on this system in the days to come, especially if it becomes a more serious threat.

-Jack

Posted on 9/17/2020 by Jack Sillin with the Hurricane Tracker App. These posts are meant to provide our users with a detailed analysis of the tropics as conditions warrant and may not be updated on a daily basis. For the latest up to date storm information, always go to “Current Storms” and select a system for the latest information.

We will have another tropical weather discussion as conditions warrant. Thanks for using Hurricane Tracker.