2/16/24 - 2024 Atlantic Pre-Season Outlook #1
We are just about 3 months away from the beginning of another hurricane season and as of the latest data we have, it’s looking like it could be above average in 2024. Across more than half of the tropical Atlantic, we are seeing July-like sea surface temperatures and it’s only mid-February! Furthermore, the EL-Nino state across the eastern Pacific is quickly fading away and forecasters expect neutral conditions by spring and possible La-Nina conditions by mid-summer. While we cannot predict the exact number of storms, the pre-season data thus far is pointing to a potentially busy 2024 season.
The Atlantic Main Development Region sea surface temperatures are running a few degrees (F) above the 1991-2020 average. This is very significant. You would expect to see these temperatures in June/July, not February.
We’ve highlighted the extent of the warmth in the tropical Atlantic. To be exact, 62% of the tropical Atlantic is warmer now than it typically is in July. This is as of Feb 12, 2024.
EL Nino Is Fading
As you can see from the image above, forecasts call for El Niño to fade into neutral conditions by spring and possibly La Nina by mid summer. El Niño conditions help to suppress Atlantic activity, while La Nina conditions allow for lighter wind shear which can help lead to more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.
We will update you again as we draw closer to the start of the season on June 1st, but as of the latest data we have, we would expect an above-average season in the Atlantic. We will keep an eye on it and keep you updated as always.
The Hurricane Tracker App is ready for the first storm of the 2024 season once it develops. This year, we will be doing even more to track storms and will have more custom graphics than ever!
The season will officially get kicked off on June 1st for the Atlantic and May 15th for the Eastern Pacific. If you are not already a premium graphics subscriber, sign up today and take advantage of our 40% off season sale. It won’t last long! Details here > Premium Graphics Info. Thank you for being a Hurricane Tracker App user and supporting our passion for tracking tropical cyclones!
