After a brief break in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity at the end of September, we have another new storm to watch in the Caribbean. Potential Tropical Cyclone 26 was designated today south of Jamaica after a tropical wave closed off a center of circulation but didn’t have quite enough organized thunderstorm activity to be deemed a tropical cyclone.

This satellite loop of PTC26 highlights the lack of convective organization that has so far hampered the system’s development. I’d expect to see thunderstorm activity become more organized by tomorrow, at which point PTC26 will be designated TD 26 or TS Delta.

PTC26 will be moving NW for the next several days while bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. The environment during this time will be nearly ideal for intensification and the storm is likely to become a hurricane before landfall in far western Cuba Tuesday evening. Because the storm will be moving briskly, interaction with Cuba isn’t expected to result in substantial weakening.

The official NHC forecast then calls for a continued northwesterly track into the central Gulf of Mexico before a turn north and eventually northeast towards Louisiana/Mississippi. This turn will occur in response to an approaching upper-level trough over Texas. This trough is likely to keep the storm away from Texas though the exact point of landfall is still uncertain.

Folks anywhere from western Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should be watching this system carefully and dusting off their hurricane plans yet again in case watches and warnings go up at some point this week.

-Jack