Isaias has become become very disorganized today and has been downgraded to a tropical storm. It is currently battling shear and dry air to its west and southwest, which has lead to a collapse of heavy convection. Despite the recent downgrade, the NHC does expect that Isaias will become better organized over the next 12-24 hours or so as it nears the FL coast. The forecast is for Isaias to regain hurricane strength sometime Sunday morning. Weakening back to a tropical storm is forecasted on Monday. Peak winds are forecasted at 75 mph. Confidence is high it will not get any stronger than the forecast (75 mph) due to less than favorable conditions and land interaction.

Per NHC:

"Although Isaias has weakened after passing over Andros Island, some re-strengthening is expected tonight and Sunday morning when the cyclone will be moving over the warm waters of the Straits of Florida and the Gulf Stream."

There will still be a threat for heavy rain along the coastline and inland from southern Florida to the coast of North Carolina and points north. Rainfall amounts will be between 3 to 5 inches with locally high amounts possible. Flooding will be the main concern for inland areas with gusty winds possible in stronger feeder bands. Winds will be highest within 20-30 miles of the coastline. Storm surge of 2-4 feet is expected along most of the east coast of Florida later today and through the day tomorrow.

Beyond FL, Isaias will track up the eastern seaboard into the mid-Atlantic and New England bringing heavy rain, tropical storm force winds and storm surge. A landfall is forecasted along the upper coast of SC Tuesday am. The storm will move quickly enough through the Carolinas that flooding shouldn’t be too big of an issue there.

Models have trended more west with Isaias today and show it making landfall in southern Florida first and then the Carolina's Monday night or Tuesday morning. Expect some power outages all along the coast as winds begin to pickup while the storm passes by. Have a plan ready and be prepared ahead of time. Stay safe if you are in the path.

We will have another discussion on Isaias posted this afternoon on Sunday 8/2/2020. Tap here for the latest and most up to date information on Isaias.

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Discussion written by Railey Kelly with the Hurricane Tracker App Team.