Hurricane Isaias has become better organized through the morning and mid afternoon today with strong thunderstorms developing over the center of Isaias. This will allow for the storm to become a little stronger later today and into tonight. Recon will depart for their next mission soon to see how strong and organized the storm is. We expect some intensification tonight and into tomorrow. Winds are forecasted to peak near 85 mph before the storm weakens as it approaches FL due to increasing wind shear.

Models have been back and forth with Isaias, but as of today have begun to trend on a more west-northwest track into southeast Florida. The latest NHC track brings the center just offshore of the FL coast this weekend. Hurricane warnings have been issued.

Scenario 1:

Isaias may make landfall in southeast Florida. The major risks will be hurricane force winds and storm surge near the center with areas further inland having tropical storm conditions with winds of 50-70 mph, heavy rains, and flooding with at least 3-6 inch's of rain. The storm would then likely track into the Mid-Atlantic and New England states where the chances of impacts are increasing.

Scenario 2:

Some model guidance also shows that if Isaias become stronger sooner, it may track further off the east coast of Florida bringing strong gusty winds along the coast along with storm surge then continue on up to the Carolinas (where a landfall could occur), bringing hurricane conditions along with storm surge and heavy rains. Beyond the Carolinas, the storm would likely track just offshore of the eastern U.S seaboard but still bringing impacts.

All preparations in FL should be rushed to completion. Impacts along the FL coast will still occur even if the center stays offshore. In fact, impacts will be possible along the entire east coast from FL to Maine. All interests and residents from FL to Maine should continue to monitor the progress of Isaias closely over the next few days. Stay tuned for updates.

We will have another discussion on Isaias posted this afternoon on Saturday 8/1/2020. Tap here for the latest and most up to date information on Isaias.

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Discussion written by Railey Kelly with the Hurricane Tracker App Team.

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