Invest 99L is still this disorganized this afternoon just north of Cuba. There is no well-defined low-level center and development chances during the next two days is about 30% according to The National Hurricane Center. Through the next 5 days, development chances are in the medium category around 40%, but those may need to be increased based on the latest guidance this afternoon.
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The GFS and the European models this afternoon have trended back towards developing the system early this upcoming week in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. We may finally be seeing a consensus between some of the models. However, we need to see if these trends continue over the next few model cycles.
The disturbance does have a vigorous mid-level circulation that could help spin a low-level center anytime once it reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are more than adequate to help the storm develop and possibly intensify. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some development of this system.
There is still a moderate amount of uncertainty as to the future with this system and we encourage all residents and interests in the Gulf of Mexico from southeast Louisiana through the west coast of the Florida Peninsula to continue to pay close attention to the system as we will be tracking it through all of next week, as it's a slow mover. Please see our latest Alert Level Map Below.
The big story over the next 2 to 3 days will be rainfall associated with this disturbance in South Florida where rainfall amounts could be between 4 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts.