5/28/16 - TD 2 Has Formed, Tropical Storm Warnings Issued For The SC Coast

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If you have been following along, we have been watching an area of disturbed weather which was dubbed Invest 91L yesterday. The Hurricane Hunters have found it has formed into a tropical depression, the second of this 2016 season which officially starts next week on June 1st. The app will be updated wth the data once the NHC servers are updated.

Diagnosis: The low pressure area has become better organized as wind shear has really dropped allowing showers and thunderstorms to begin developing near the center. TD 2 should be upgraded to Tropical Storm Bonnie within the next 48 hours before it reaches the SC coastline.

Track: The models have been very consistent with tracking TD 2 generally towards the SC/NC coastlines and we see no reason for any major changes. The steering pattern is locked in we do expect a landfalling system along the SC coastline sometime Sunday afternoon.

Intensity: As usual, intensity is one of the hardest things for the models and NHC to forecast. Wind shear is forecasted to be very low. The peak intensity will be determined by how much dry air gets pulled into the circulation and how long does it spend crossing the narrow tongue of the Gulf Stream where waters are in the low-mid 80's. Some of the guidance is forecasting that 91L will slow down as it approaches the coast. If this happens while its over the Gulf Stream, we could be looking at a moderate to strong tropical storm. It's important to note that the waters right near the coast (continental shelf) are cool and would help the system weaken as it moves onshore. Right now, the NHC forecasts peak winds of 45 mph. See the images below.

 You can easily see the warm Gulf Stream "river" just offshore.

You can easily see the warm Gulf Stream "river" just offshore.

 Wind shear closer to the coast is low. The black and blue areas is where little to no wind shear is present. 

Wind shear closer to the coast is low. The black and blue areas is where little to no wind shear is present. 

 Note the dry air layer that is to the north and west of the system.

Note the dry air layer that is to the north and west of the system.

Hazards:  Please see the image below from the NHC.

Thank you for using and trusting the Hurricane App for your tropical weather information. We will be here throughout the holiday weekend with updates. For more frequent information, follow us on Twitter @hurrtrackerapp.

If you have a 2 extra minutes, take a listen to our latest audio update on TD2 here: http://bit.ly/1cHTE10