The chance for early season development is high according to the latest NHC outlook. There is now a 70 chance of development through 5 days and 50% (medium) through 48 hours. The forecasted upper level pattern for this weekend is expected to become favorable to Invest 91L to develop into a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone. It is important to note that at this time, we are not expecting 91L to develop into anything too strong. Perhaps a 40-50 mph storm at best. Heavy rain will be the primary threat as the system is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast this weekend. Receive our detailed discussions via email as soon as they are published, please tap here.
At this time, the model guidance tracks the center of the system into the upper SC/lower NC coastlines. Based on the models, this is expected to be a small compact system. However, if the system were to stall over the narrow, warm Gulf Stream (where temps are in the low-mid 80's) there would be a possibly the system could be a big larger and stronger than what the data currently shows. If you recall in early May last year, Tropical Ana affected this same region and was able to build convection and become a bit stronger as it passed over the Gulf Stream. The water temperatures are running a few degrees warmer than last May.
With the holiday weekend approaching, all interests along coastal GA, SC & NC please check back often for updates on 91L. We will be here at the Hurricane Tracker app with the latest official information, our analysis and the latest updates. Thank you for using our service.
If you have a few extra minutes, take a listen to our latest audio update on 91L here: http://bit.ly/1cHTE10