Hurricane Danny surprised everyone today and intensified into a major category 3 hurricane. As we stated yesterday, small storms can spin up or down very quickly. However, CAT 3 status will be short-lived as westerly wind shear is beginning to take a toll on the system the afternoon. Danny should steadily weaken from this point on as it tracks towards a zone of 30-40 kt wind shear. The official forecast from the NHC brings Danny through the Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm on Monday. Some of the latest forecast models show that Danny may actually track a bit farther north and just clip the islands. There is also a chance that Danny could fully dissipate into an open wave before reaching the Caribbean Sea.
Very few of the computer models show Danny regenerating once it moves away from the wind shear and into a more favorable environment early next week. The models have not been handling this storm well due to its small size. We will be watching very closely to see if Danny may be able to reform (if it does dissipate). At this time, we would place 60% odds on Danny dissipating near the Lesser Antilles due to the effects of the wind shear, and a 20% chance of reforming if dissipation occurs. The chances of Danny impacting the US coast are around 5%. We highly recommend following our Twitter (hurrtrackerapp) for real time coverage as the storm tracks westward. Receive our detailed discussions via email as soon as they are published, please tap here.
If you are a resident or have interests in the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico, please continue to monitor Danny closely over the next several days. We have issued high alert levels for the NE Caribbean as Danny is expected to bring some impacts to the region early next week.
Beyond Danny, it appears the Atlantic Basin will remain active as models are forecasting 2 possible storms to form next week that will be moving off Africa. The general pattern would favor these systems tracking across the Atlantic towards the Bahamas, if they can survive the shear and dry air. The image you see below is from the EURO model for next Tue/Wed. You can see the storm it's trying to develop behind Danny's remnants with a mean WNW track. We will be watching this potential very closely and will provide updates throughout next week.
Also, the amount of dust across the Atlantic Ocean has dramatically decreased over the last 5 days creating a more favorable environment for future waves to possibly develop (see image below).
Please continue to check in with the Hurricane Tracker App for the latest official forecast on Danny and analysis from the Hurricane Tracker App team.
A new post will be issue on Sunday morning. Please check the Real Time Feed for Danny on the storm page for frequent updates from us.
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