SUN 8/23/15 11AM EDT - Tropical Storm Danny Is Hanging Tough, Challenging Forecast Ahead

We're continuing to closely follow TS Danny as it moves closer to the Lesser Antilles. Danny is moving to the west around 14 mph and maximum sustained winds are 50 mph. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions of the NE Caribbean Sea. TS watches have been issued for Puerto Rico & the U.S. Virgin Islands due to the uncertainties in the forecast. During the last 24 hours, Danny has been affected by 20 to 40 kt vertical wind shear which allowed the center of the storm to become exposed yesterday evening. It does appear that the shear axis is weakening, which is allowing Danny to somewhat reorganize this morning as the center is being pulled closer towards the thunderstorm activity. It is possible that Danny could strengthen a little before arriving in the Lesser Antilles tomorrow. If you are a resident or have an interest in the region, please follow future NHC forecasts very closely over the next 24 to 36 hrs as there is a high level of uncertainty in regards to the intensity forecast. Hopefully the region can get some much needed rain fall from Danny. Please tap here to listen to our latest Audio Update on Hurricane Danny. (Updates daily).

 TS watches and warnings are up for portions of the NE Caribbean.

TS watches and warnings are up for portions of the NE Caribbean.

 Our latest 5 Day Alert Levels. 

Our latest 5 Day Alert Levels. 

 This image shows the wind shear around Danny has been decreasing.

This image shows the wind shear around Danny has been decreasing.

The long range forecast for Danny is highly contingent upon what the storm does over the next two days. If Danny is a stronger storm, it would be more likely to survive land interaction with Hispaniola in a few days in that could lead to a potentially larger threat the Bahamas or U.S. The latest intensity forecast from the computer models are beginning to show Danny re-strengthening in about 3 to 4 days. From the beginning, Danny has been a fighter and has been resilient when facing a challenging environment over the last 24 hours. Uncertainty is very low in regards to the future track and intensity of Danny. Please stay tuned here for the latest updates and information in real-time.

 TS Danny is fairly organized despite battling wind shear.

TS Danny is fairly organized despite battling wind shear.

As we look ahead to the next week, we could be in for more tropical activity and threats down the road. Invest 98L was designated last night and has a 70% chance of developing over the next five days as it follows a similar track that Danny took. The latest European model what will likely be Tropical Storm Erika moving west-northwest just north of Hispaniola late next week. Please stay tune to the Hurricane Tracker App as we cover this upcoming system over the next week. We highly recommend following our Twitter (hurrtrackerapp) for real time coverage as the systems track westward. Receive our detailed discussions via email as soon as they are published, please tap here

A new post will be issue sometime on Monday. Please check the Real Time Feed for Danny on the storm page for frequent updates from us.

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