WED 8/19/15 2PM EDT - TS Danny Churns In The Atlantic. Intensity Forecast Uncertain

We continue to track Tropical Storm Danny which is located over the Central Atlantic about 1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Danny is moving to the west at 12 mph and has maximum sustained winds at 50 mph. Overnight, Danny became a little disorganized as it began pulling in dry, dusty air from its north. There is little to no wind shear, and we do believe that the dry air may continue to be an issue for Danny over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center still forecasts Danny to become a hurricane by Friday and eventually peak this weekend with winds of 90 mph (CAT 1). I would like to note that some of the models as well as the National Hurricane Center have backed off on their intensity forecast. We currently place the odds of Danny becoming a hurricane at about 50-50. There is always a small possibility that enough dry air wraps into the circulation inhibiting thunderstorm development and could cause Danny to fully dissipate over the next few days (20 % chance). If Danny holds together, it could become a threat for the northern portions of the Lesser Antilles in about 5 to 6 days. If you are a resident or have an interest in that region, please follow future forecasts very closely.

Beyond the next five days, it's nearly impossible to forecast what Danny's intensity will be and where it might track. For the long term, we have analyze past analogs and model trends to put together our long range impact chances. As you can see at this time, chances of Danny impacting the United States coast are very low at less than 5%. This image will be updated on Danny's "Maps/Models" page in the app once a day as new data comes in.

Finally, we would like to stress there is a lot of an certainty with the intensity forecast over the next five days. We have issued guarded alert levels for portions of the Eastern Caribbean Sea on the chance that Danny holds together and threatens the region as a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane early next week. Please continue to check in with the Hurricane Tracker App for the latest official forecast on Danny and analysis from the Hurricane Tracker App team.

Please tap here to listen to our latest Audio Update on TS Danny. (Updates daily).

A new post will be issue on Thursday afternoon. Please check the Real Time Feed for Danny on the storm page for frequent updates from us.

We highly recommend following our Twitter (hurrtrackerapp) for real time coverage as the storm tracks westward. Receive our detailed discussions via email as soon as they are published, please tap here

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