We have been watching Invest 96L ever since it moved off the African coast. It has organized into Tropical Depression 4. The official forecast from the NHC intensifies TD 4 into TS Danny by tonight. Obviously, there is no immediate threat to land as it is at least 5 days away from potentially impacting portions of the Caribbean Sea. The current environment around TD 4 appears favorable for it to strengthen into at least a strong tropical storm. In fact, the NHC is even forecasting Danny to intensify into a CAT 2 hurricane this weekend. Wind shear is light and there is plenty of warm water to fuel the developing system. The only inhibitor at this time is a large shield of dry, dusty air to the north of the depression. However, TD 4 is attached to the intertropical convergence zone which should continue to provide it adequate moisture to intensify some.
Most of the model guidance shows the storm succumbing to increasing wind shear as it nears the Caribbean Sea this weekend (see image below), but that is a long ways out. Think of it this way: TD 4 is just starting a very long obstacle course and has many hurdles to go before impacting any land areas. Dry air, wind shear and cooler than average water temperatures in the Western Atlantic will all play a role at some point. Of course, the stronger the storm becomes in the short term while conditions are favorable, the stronger it may be able to fight down the road. We will see if the NHC's forecast of a CAT 2 100 mph hurricane verifies.
If, and that's a BIG if, the pattern may allow entry into the Gulf or the Bahamas 10-15 days from now, should it survive the hurdles. There is simply no way to forecast beyond 5 days with any degree of certainty. If you are a resident or have in interest in the Caribbean, please continue to check in often with the Hurricane Tracker App for NHC updates and the latest analysis from our team.
Please tap here to listen to our latest Audio Update on TS Danny. (Updates daily).
A new post will be issue on Wednesday afternoon. Please check the Real Time Feed for Danny on the storm page for frequent updates from us.
We highly recommend following our Twitter (hurrtrackerapp) for real time coverage as the storm tracks westward. Receive our detailed discussions via email as soon as they are published, please tap here.
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