Invest 90L has become better organized today and is currently located about 230 miles to the south-southeast of the SC/NC border. 90L is nearly stationary and will remain nearly stationary or just slowly move towards the northeastern coast of South Carolina and the southwestern North Carolina coastline from today right through this weekend. The Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the storm system this morning and they have found tropical storm force winds at the surface, but it lacks a clearly defined low-level center. Due to the broad circulation, the National Hurricane Center is not upgrading 90L to a sub tropical storm at this time. However, we do expect that by tonight and into tomorrow morning the system will organize even further and be upgraded to Subtropical Storm Ana. The NHC is advising that development chances for the storm are high at 80%.
Intensity - Every model is forecasting a 40-50 mph sub-tropical storm at peak intensity. Overall, we continue to believe this will not be a big inland wind event and peak winds should be around 50-55 mph max.
Track - We feel pretty confident that the storm track will be towards the upper SC or lower NC coastline by Saturday. There is a good chance it makes landfall this weekend before turning NE & out to sea. Due to the forecasted slow speed of the storm, heavy rainfall up to 4 inches and coastal flooding will be the main impacts.
Timing - Impacts have already begun along coastal sections of South Carolina and North Carolina as heavy rain bands have been moving through since early this morning and will continue to do so until the storm moves out this weekend. Unfortunately, not a good idea to spend Mother's Day at the beach.
We do want to stress that this will not be a high-impact storm, but for the month of May it is pretty formidable. All residents and interests along the SC/NC coastlines, please pay close attention to this developing weather system as there is strong potential of a subtropical or tropical storm developing. We will continue to provide updates as more data becomes available. If you are a Periscope user, please follow us (hurricanetrackerapp) as we will be providing live, short video broadcast with the latest models and information from time to time. Thank you for using Hurricane Tracker. We will have another update sometime tomorrow
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