Even though the official kickoff to the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season isn't until June 1, we are closely monitoring the possibility of a sub-tropical low pressure system developing east of FL towards the middle to later portion of this week. The NHC has placed 30% odds of development within 5 days. Let us first say that we are not looking for a strong storm to form. If development occurs, it will be relatively weak with winds less than 50 mph. Water temperatures outside the narrow Gulf Stream are just warm enough to support development, but not intensification. If the system were to sit and spin over the Gulf Stream for a few days, then there would be a slight chance we could see a stronger system than what the models show. Speaking of the models, they are all in fairly good agreement with a weak low pressure system developing sometime Wed/Thur with an eventual track to the NW, generally towards the Carolinas as a high pressure ridge to the north would prevent it from going out to sea (see graphic below).

Expected impacts using the latest model data. Subject to change.

The setup for later this week. Map courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com & annotations by The Hurricane Tracker App.

The main impacts from this system would be rough surf conditions from E FL to NC, beach erosion, gusty winds and some rainfall. Details will be available as we get closer in time. All interests from E FL to the Outer Banks of NC should closely monitor the progress of this weather system. Keep checking back for frequent updates as new data becomes available. See below for the first outlook regarding this system from the NHC: