FRI 5/1/15 9PM EDT - Early Season Development Possible Next Week

We would like to give you an early welcome to the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Officially, the season doesn't begin until 6/1. However, for the last few days all of the global models have been persistent in developing either a subtropical or tropical storm just north of the Bahamas by Wednesday - Thursday of the upcoming week. While it is not normal to have a system well before the season starts, its not unheard of. Since 1980, there have only been 3 pre-season storms (prior to June 1). Odds are against development, but models show it’s possible.

EURO 12Z run from 4/30/15 showing a developing system next week off the SE US coastline.

The waters of the SW Atlantic are marginally warm enough to support a developing system outside of the bubbling Gulf Stream. If development occurs, it appears the system will be relatively weak with winds below 50 mph. The models have been wavering on a potential track with many runs taking the system out to sea while some recent runs of the EURO model actually track it inland into SC/NC next weekend. We are still several days out and the details will be fined tuned as we get closer in time. Development looks to begin sometime Wednesday or Thursday. We give development odds of about 60% at this time. Let this be a reminder that weather does not operate on a specific time table. We will be back with updates over the weekend as new data rolls in. Not much of a concern at this point. Thanks for using Hurricane Tracker and we look forward to keeping you up to date this upcoming season.