Tues - 8PM EDT - Chances Increasing...

We have increased our development chances in the Gulf to 50% over the next 5 days. NHC is still at 20%, but we believe they will slowly increase their odds soon. They were at 0% this morning. Let us explain:

-More models are now showing development on WED/THU. EURO model is the primary holdout & it has not performed well with Boris. GFS has been spot on so far with the evolution of the system. We have been monitoring real time trends as we are getting closer.

-It was previously thought that energy from Boris would NOT make it into the Gulf. It is now looking likely that it will happen.

-We have analyzed the wind shear & it has decreased by 10 knots this afternoon & will continue to do so as an upper low moves away creating a more favorable environment. Also, water temps in the Bay of Campeche are in the low 80's - more than warm enough.

We will have a complete discussion later this evening (as we do everyday) in the app. This system will not be moving anywhere anytime soon. Hurricane hunters are likely to fly on Thursday as the NHC has sent them a mission request. www.hurrtracker.com

*This is our own outlook & not the view of the NHC. Always refer to them for official information. We try to be realtime & realistic.