11AM Update: The National Hurricane Center has declared the area of disturbed weather as Invest 90L, our first Atlantic Invest of the season. Check the "Current Storms" tab for all the models & satellites. Quick video update below:
8AM Update: A very weak area of low pressure in association with an upper level trough continues to sit across the Gulf of Mexico today. Tropical Storm Boris has been downgraded to a depression and the center has moved ashore. Now that Boris is weakening, we will see if organization starts to occur in the Bay of Campeche where some models have shown for days now.
The main limiting factor will be upper level wind shear. At this time, wind shear is only marginally favorable at around 30 knots. Wind shear is strong winds in the upper part of the atmosphere that blow the thunderstorms off the area of low pressure making development or intensification difficult.
The overnight runs of the GFS model have been trending towards more wind shear than previously forecasted in previous runs. It now shows the jet stream dipping further south into the Bay of Campeche (see image below). If this were to verify, then development would not occur.
At this time, the NHC is officially advising of a low chance (20%) of development during the next 5 days.
We are maintaining an overall 40% chance of development for the next 7 days due to Invest 90L & models showing development next week (visit Model Watch for more info).
We will keep you updated as the outlook changes. We have time to see how this weather system will evolve. Check back daily for the latest update & you can see all the model runs in the Model Watch section of the app. The next full update will be posted tomorrow afternoon or sooner if there is a drastic change in the outlook. Thanks for using the Hurricane Tracker App & please leave us a quick review in the App Store if you find our outlooks helpful. Thanks!