Headline: Development chances are decreasing, but still possible this week in the southern Gulf of Mexico as conditions could become marginally favorable. Currently, a trough of low pressure is producing showers/thunderstorms across the Gulf. Wind shear is currently 30-40 knots & is forecasted to decrease some by WED/THU. 5 day development chances: NHC: 20% Hurricane Tracker: 25%. We are maintaining a low chance of development due to the GFS model showing at least a depression every run & it seems plausible that some energy from newly formed TS Boris currently in the Eastern Pacific may work its way into the gulf sparking development.
(Bold Text Indicates Changes/Additions From Previous Discussion)
When: There is currently a low potential of a tropical depression forming mid-late week.
Strength: If tropical development occurs, we expect it to be relatively weak due to strong upper level wind shear forecasted by the models, although it may relax some. Wind shear blows the thunderstorms away from a storm's center making it hard to intensify. No hurricane is possible with this scenario.
Track: If development occurs, steering patterns would be fairly weak and the system would likely stall in the southern Gulf for days. Long term track: IF the system develops & holds together the most likely track would be ENE towards the FL peninsula (long ways out though).
Impacts: The main impact from this weather system will be 10-20 inches of rain across portions of Mexico & Central America with locally higher amounts. The areas below in the "Guarded" alert level have the best chance of being impacted, mainly rainfall & mudslides. There is currently NO THREAT whatsoever to the US Gulf coast in the short term.
Confidence: Low confidence of at least a tropical depression developing. Low confidence in the track & intensity.
We will keep you updated as the outlook changes. We have plenty of time to see how this weather system will evolve. Check back daily for the latest update & you can see all the model runs in the Model Watch section of the app. The next full update will be posted tomorrow afternoon or sooner if there is a drastic change in the outlook. If you would like more information, check out our video update below. Thanks for using the Hurricane Tracker App & please leave us a quick review in the App Store if you find our outlooks helpful. Thanks!
Have we said yet that we wish this would just dissipate :)