NHC: 80% chance of development within 48 hrs and TS Watches are possible.
Here is the latest on the potential threat to the SE this week. We are watching Invest 91L located roughly 140 miles east of FL. The system has good low level structure, but lacks deep convection near the center. It is moving into a more favorable environment & we could see a Tropical Depression within 24 hours & TS Arthur shortly thereafter. Portions of the FL Peninsula will see some minor effects during the next 2-3 days. Check www.weather.gov for your official forecast front the NWS.
The good news is all of the tropical and global models AGREE on the track through the next several days. The center should get within 50-75 miles off of the FL east coast before it starts to turn north/ne & basically "hug" the coast up through the Carolinas.
The bad news is most models are showing Arthur intensifying into a Hurricane by late week as it interacts with an approaching upper level trough that will create an environment conducive for rapid intensification. Most models show a threat to portions of South & North Carolina this upcoming holiday weekend. Details are impossible to pinpoint at this time, but we urge all residents along the SE coast to keep close tabs on the future progress of this system. Please see our Alert Level map below to see who is at greatest risk.
The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled for this afternoon, if necessary. We will be watching the system closely today for signs of further development. Please leave us a review in the App Store if you can & let us know how we are doing. We will have another full update later today. Thanks! ~ Hurricane Tracker App Team