Thanks for checking in. The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season has begun. Computer models are in GREAT agreement on the fact that something will develop. Based on the newest data, we are at a 50% chance of development of a system in the southern Gulf mid next week. We have been updating our users on this for days, but the NHC is now giving a 20% chance of development within 5 days. We expect their number to increase over the next few days.
What is not so certain, is the track & intensity of the system. The two main computer models that have the most weight are the EURO & the GFS. The EURO model shows the system tracking WNW into coastal Mexico as a weak TS, while the GFS meanders the system slowly to the ENE with an eventual landfall near Tampa, FL a week from this Monday. The other computer models are not much help. No one knows where it would track or how strong it would be until the models come into agreement. We will update the image below every 12 hours or so. Our alert level map will give you a good idea of what level of alert different parts of the coastline have. Right now, only a low risk of a Gulf Coast landfall within 5 days.
We will keep you updated as the outlook changes. We have plenty of time to see how this weather system will evolve. Check back daily for the latest update & you can see all the model runs in the Model Watch section of the app. The next full update will be posted later this morning after we get new data. Thanks for using the Hurricane Tracker App & please leave us a quick review in the App Store if you find our outlooks helpful. Thanks!