Most models now agree on the formation of Tropical Storm Arthur as early as Wed in the southern Gulf. However, models are diverging on where Arthur would track. At this time, the most likely scenario is that the storm would just meander in the southern Gulf for a few days as steering currents will be relatively weak. Interests in the SW & the NE Gulf need to follow this story closely. Over the next couple of days we should get a clearer picture of where it may track. Based on the latest information, there is about a 45% chance that this will develop mid week. We will have another post this afternoon around 3PM EDT.