For many days now we have been advertising to our users that there may be a potential for tropical development just after the season begins in the Caribbean Sea/Gulf of Mexico. During the last 24 hours, the models have become in a little better agreement as to the evolution of the pattern that may indeed spark tropical development around WED/THURS. At this time, we see a 35% chance of development within the next 7 days.
We will be watching for the formation of a tropical system in the Eastern Pacific this weekend just sw of Guatemala. This potential system will be a key player in whether or not we get development next week in the southern Gulf as the computer models are forecasting it to weaken and crossover into the Bay of Campeche (see graphic below).
If a system tries to develop, it will have to rendezvous with light to moderate wind shear & cooler than average waters in the Western Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rain would be the primary threat where we could see 3-6 inches or more anywhere from SE LA eastward to FL. These areas have already been soaked the last few months. Conditions will not be supportive of anything more than a sloppy, wet tropical storm. The first name on the list is Arthur. There is no immediate threat of a US landfall.
We will keep you updated as the outlook changes. We have plenty of time to see how this weather system will evolve. Check back daily for the latest update & you can see all the model runs in the Model Watch section of the app. If models continue with development, then we would expect The National Hurricane Center to start issuing their updates Sun/Mon. Thanks for using the Hurricane Tracker App & please leave us a quick review in the App Store if you find our outlooks helpful. Thanks!