For may days in a row one of the most accurate models (GFS) was showing development in the W Caribbean Sea. Once we got within 6-7 days out it really caught our attention because the overall pattern favored development and the model had been so consistent. There was also support from a few other models. At one time, we placed the odds of development at 50%-60%.
We are happy to report that the GFS model has dropped development for next week even though moisture and storminess will be on the increase in the W Caribbean Sea as we begin hurricane season next week.
There still may be an influx of moisture into portions of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Just depends on how much moisture moves north out of the deep tropics. The EURO model is now showing development in the Bay of Campeche, but that is 7 days out. We could see some energy from the Eastern Pacific be drawn into the Southern Gulf of Mexico to help spark development next week. This is what the EURO & a couple other models are seeing:
At this time, there is a low chance (10%) that we will get development in the Atlantic basin next week. We will update our percentage once or twice a day based on trends.
Going forward, with this event - the GFS has taught us & a lot of other weather services that even superior run to run consistency from a major model does not mean there are decent chances that something will develop.
We have re-calulated our development chance formula that takes into account MANY factors such as model accuracy, run to run consistency & # of days from possible storm formation. In the future, our development odds will be more conservative & will better reflect trends across all models (especially the more accurate ones). On the overview page, you will now see a new graphic which indicates our thoughts on what the development chance is within the next 7 days. The NHC usually releases their outlooks within 2 days from possible development. We like to give our users a bit more lead time on possible formation. Sometimes we may differ from the NHC, but most of the time will be similar. Thanks for reading!