Development Still Possible/Complex Situation

Yesterday we wrote about the potential of tropical development early next week just after the 2014 season starts. There have been some changes in the outlook since yesterday as models are becoming a little more clear as we draw closer to a potential system developing (5 days away).

We are currently giving a 40% chance that a tropical low or tropical depression will form sometime between Sun Night & Tuesday just east of the Yucatan Peninsula. It now appears the low pressure area will be kept south and fester over the Yucatan Peninsula for 3-4 days well into next week before possibly emerging into the southern Gulf of Mexico where wind shear could win out and help the system to fully dissipate. A tropical depression or a low end TS is the most we would expect IF there is development.

Latest outlook for next week using the latest information.

Latest outlook for next week using the latest information.

Deep tropical moisture (main effect from this forecasted system) on the east side of this disturbed weather will likely move into portions of the Gulf of Mexico. Some of this moisture may reach the Gulf coast states late next week, but  that depends on how much this system organizes and how far north it moves. It will have to battle with land interaction & wind shear.

Based on the latest information, the potential for a Gulf coast landfall in early June is low, but is still somewhat present. Please check in daily as the outlook may still change with new information as we draw closer to next week. We will always report the latest information the data shows & keep you current on what may happen. Thanks!