The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins on June 1. Apparently, the computer models are very aware of this date as we have had three models show remarkable consistency in regards to tropical development just after the season begins.
We first informed our users of this potential on May 21 (6 days ago). The pattern that sets up early next week will be ripe for tropical development. First, we have an active phase of the MJO (promotes thunderstorm development) setting up across the Eastern Pacific & Western Caribbean around the end of May. Second, we have an upper low dropping south in the Caribbean which will help to provide a spark. Finally, water temperatures in the Western Caribbean Sea are some of the warmest in the basin, averaging in the low 80's. The models have been very persistent for many runs in a row showing this potential. When they are as persistent as they have been, it is very hard to ignore them. The only model holding out is the EURO, but we think it will start to pick up on this within a few days.
Low pressure will likely form somewhere east of Belize Mon/Tues. The system should slowly organize as it lifts off to the north. High pressure is forecasted to be positioned east of FL next week which would close the path for the system to head out to sea. The most likely scenario is for a system to track into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico somewhere between New Orleans, LA & Tampa, FL as weak to moderate Tropical Storm (Arthur). Please view the image in this post to see our cone. We will narrow this cone down as we get close to next week.
Wind shear will be prevalent in the Gulf of Mexico (normal for this time of year) which would help to limit the strength of the system. At this time, do not expect a strong storm to develop. It should stay relatively weak. We might get a 50-55 mph TS at best with this type of pattern. Also, water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are slightly below average for this time of year. We do expect a surge of tropical moisture to invade the eastern Gulf of Mexico from the Caribbean. Expect a wet one next week if you live in FL & the Eastern Gulf states.
As always, there is NO GUARANTEE that a storm will develop & head north. This is just our latest outlook after analyzing the data for the past 6 days. The image & fine details will change over the next few days, so please check in often for the latest updates. A detailed video update is available in "Video Updates" section of the app. ~ The Hurricane Tracker Team.