Southern Gulf Disturbance May Develop Next Week 6/12/24

The NHC is now highlighting an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche and states there’s currently a 20% chance of development through the next 7 days. Most global models and ensembles show this system developing by Tue/Wed next week and tracking into Mexico. We think development chances are high for this one. A strong ridge of high pressure is forecasted to develop across the southern U.S. next week, which would steer the system W-WNW into the Gulf coast of Mexico. We will monitor and keep you updated with any changes to this outlook. Southern Texas should keep an eye on this disturbance in case it tries to sneak north a little.

~Steve, Hurricane Tracker App

The 6/12/24 0Z EURO ensembles show development and the majority track it into Mexico. Texas should keep an eye on this in case it tracks further north.