9/25/22 - 11AM EDT

Tropical Storm Ian is gradually becoming better organized and is expected to have winds over 100 mph in about 36 hours. Ian will impact western Cuba Monday and Tuesday. Hurricane warnings are in effect there. Once we get into Wednesday to Friday, the track becomes uncertain as the models are split. The GFS and HWRF models show a weaker trough over the southeastern U.S. which would allow Ian to make landfall along the Florida panhandle. The EURO and the UKMET models show a sharper trough (see image below), which would allow Ian to make more of a northeast turn into the west-central FL coast near Tampa. Either scenario is still at play and all residents and interests from Pensacola to Naples should monitor future forecasts closely. Ian will be a powerful hurricane. The exact final track and intensity are unknown at this time. All we can do is check the latest NHC forecasts and prepare as much as possible ahead of time. We will have another update as the forecast changes.