This afternoon Hurricane Fiona is moving into the Atlantic, and will likely strengthen into a major hurricane over the coming days. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas. Fiona will intensify and possibly bring tropical storm or hurricane conditions to Bermuda later this week. There’s even a chance it could bring impactful weather to portions of extreme SE Canada. Fiona has already turned out to be a devastating storm as nearly 2 feet of rainfall and 100+ mph winds have impacted portions of Puerto Rico during the last 48 hours. Our thoughts and prayers are with those who were impacted. We will continue to keep tabs on Fiona as it moves towards Bermuda and SE Canada over the coming days.

Behind Fiona, we turn our attention to the central Atlantic, where we are watching a tropical wave that has the potential of some gradual development over the next several days. There’s currently a 20% chance of development and we expect that to increase over the coming days.

Unfortunately, model agreement is very high concerning this next system. The latest forecast models show the system tracking through the Caribbean during the next 5 to 7 days and possibly reaching the Gulf of Mexico in about 7 to 10 days. We reviewed and analyzed the latest model data, and can see why all of the models are in agreement so far on this next system. It has been a slow season in the western part of the basin and the waters are still very warm as they have been undisturbed. The forecast models are currently showing little to no wind shear across the Caribbean in the Gulf of Mexico over during this timeframe and that fits with the La Niña pattern North America is currently in.

The data also shows a building ridge of high pressure behind Fiona in the southwest Atlantic, which would ensure that this system stays on a westerly course through the Caribbean.

It’s not time to panic or pinpoint exactly where this system may end up in the long-term, but we are writing this post today, because the overall pattern fits what the models are showing. Of course, we have many days and model runs to watch the system, and we will keep you updated with the latest information. But yes, the factors and ingredients are there for a potential hurricane in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico before the month is over. This is something we take seriously and will keep tabs on it and make sure you stay informed. Thanks for using the Hurricane Tracker App and have a good week.