9/18/17 - CAT 5 Maria Beginning To Impact The Caribbean While Jose Tracks Towards S New England

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Two storms in the Atlantic are about to impact two different areas of land. Hurricane Jose is headed for New England Tue/Wed, but won’t make landfall and Hurricane Maria is beginning to impact portions of the Lesser Antilles. 

Hurricane Jose: As the storm tracks toward cooler ocean waters and wind shear increases, it will gradually weaken as it begins to impact Southern New England Tuesday into Wednesday. The main threats associated with Jose will be the rain and the wind. Some locations, especially near Cape Cod may pick up around half a foot of rainfall. Winds may gust as high as 50-60 mph in southeastern Massachusetts. Those winds may cause scattered power outages, so make sure you are all stocked up on batteries water, non-perishables, gasoline for generators etc . Otherwise, the rest of Southern New England will get showers and gusts up to 20-40 mph. Also, some minor coastal flooding is possible with a storm surge up to one or two feet. By Thursday, the storm will begin to stall because there is no steering flow to bring it out to sea. Jose will likely sit off the Northeast coast as a weakening cyclone and become a remnant low by this weekend. Jose will likely cause a weakness in the steering flow allowing Maria to be pulled north likely away from the United States coast.

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Current Watches/Warnings:

Hurricane Maria:

Short-Term Forecast: Hurricane Maria is the most concerning storm in the Atlantic at this time. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Maria to make landfall on Puerto Rico on Wednesday as a category 4 or 5 hurricane. If that were to happen, the entire island would deal with catastrophic damage. Tonight, Maria will move through the Lesser Antilles, near Dominica, as a 160 mph category 5 hurricane. The good news, if there is any good news with this storm, is that the center of Maria will likely miss the northern Leeward Islands that were devastated by Hurricane Irma. Then on Wednesday, the brunt of the storm will move into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. You need to prepare now. You only have until Tuesday evening to finish preparations! Later in the week, the Dominican Republic and Haiti will be impacted by rain and wind from Maria. It is not forecast to make landfall on Hispaniola, but they are in the NHC cone so it is definitely possible. As Maria passes near Hispaniola, the storm may take a more north-northwesterly direction instead of west-northwest. Either way, Turks and Caicos and the eastern Bahamian islands will likely be affected by Maria. Storm surge could be significant just like it was for Irma for these islands.

 Maria went from an Invest to a CAT 5 hurricane in 48 hours.

Maria went from an Invest to a CAT 5 hurricane in 48 hours.

Current Watches/Warnings:
 

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Long-Range Forecast: The latest guidance is showing that Maria should turn east of the United States and into the open Atlantic thanks to Hurricane Jose creating a south > north steering flow for Maria. If Jose was not sitting of the coast of New England, Maria would then likely track WNW towards the SE U.S. Of course, with this being a long range outlook and more than a week away, it could still change and we will closely monitor the latest data and let you know if there is any shift in the track towards the east coast.

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We will have another update as conditions warrant on Hurricanes Jose and Maria. -- Jackson Dill & Steve Parker, Hurricane Tracker Team