6/18/17 - Tracking Invest 92L & 93L. Impacts Possible Within 3-5 Days

INVEST 93L NEAR THE YUCATAN

Overview - Lots to discuss, let's get to it. There’s currently a large area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean Sea. Surface pressures have continued to fall and the aerial coverage of disturbed weather has continued to increase. Conditions appear favorable for gradual development of the system as it moves slowly northwestern across the Yucatán peninsula this weekend and into the south-central Gulf of Mexico over the next 2-3 days. As of this writing, this system has a 70% chance of development over the next two days and a 90% chance of development through the next five days. 

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Watches/Warnings - There are currently no watches or warnings associated with this system.

Intensity - This system is not expected to become anything more than a tropical storm over the next five days. There is less than a 10% chance this could become a hurricane. There is still a slight chance this system may become nothing more than an interest or a depression.

Track - Based on the latest guidance, it appears this system will eventually impact a portion of the U.S. Gulf coast. The exact track cannot be pin-pointed yet, but landfall will likely occur somewhere between the lower TX coast and SE LA Tues/Wed. We hope to be able to narrow this down a little further by tomorrow.

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Alert Levels - We have issued low - elevated alert levels for a portion of the Gulf Coast as there are still a couple of tracks scenarios for this system. We want to stress that the main impacts from this system, regardless of development, will be heavy rainfall to the north and east of where the center tracks. Below you will find the precipitation forecast for the european and the GFS American model. At this time, we can't say exactly where the storm will track or which areas along the Gulf Coast will see heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Stay tuned to future outlooks.

Impacts - Regardless of development, the main impacts from this system will be heavy rainfall and the possibly of low end tropical storm force winds. This will not be a classic tropical cyclone in terms of organization. Broad, sloppy and wet is the theme here.

 6/18/17 12Z EURO precipitation forecast. We could see over a foot of rain well north and east of the center.

6/18/17 12Z EURO precipitation forecast. We could see over a foot of rain well north and east of the center.

Conclusion - If you are a resident or have interests along the Gulf of Mexico, please continue to check in throughout this weekend for updates on this system as we will be here with the latest information. There's no immediate risk with this system.

INVEST 92L IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC

Overview - A strong tropical wave has formed in the eastern Atlantic basin and has been designated Invest 92L by the hurricane center. As of this writing, it currently has a 60% chance of development over the next two days and a 60% chance through the next five days. This system has the potential to affect portions of the eastern Caribbean Sea through the next five days. Once the system reaches the Caribbean Sea, we expect the system to weaken back into an open wave due to increasing wind shear that it will encounter as it moves west.

Watches/Warnings - There are currently no watches or warnings associated with this system.

Intensity - Based on the latest guidance, we expect that if this system develops it could easily reach tropical storm status. At the present time, we’re not expecting this to become anything more then a moderate tropical storm. Weakening is expected next week if it reaches the Caribbean Sea due to increasing wind shear to its west. Right now, the environment is favorable.

 This system is forecasted to weaken in the Caribbean next week and it encounters increasing wind shear. Environment until then is favorable.

This system is forecasted to weaken in the Caribbean next week and it encounters increasing wind shear. Environment until then is favorable.

Track - The track forecast is fairly straightforward, the system will generally track towards the west-west northwest over the next several days generally towards the southern Lesser Antilles in the eastern Caribbean Sea. A ridge of high pressure to the north of the system is the main steering influence.

 GEFS ensemble forecast for Tuesday.

GEFS ensemble forecast for Tuesday.

Alert Levels - Since there’s medium confidence in the future development of this system, we have issued elevated alert levels for the southern half of the Lesser Antilles. Minor impacts are possible within the next 5 days.

Impacts - If the system develops and tracks towards the southern Lesser Antilles as anticipated, the main impacts would be tropical storm force winds of 40-60 mph and heavy rainfall. The system is expected to pass through the region on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Conclusion - If this invest does indeed develop into a tropical cyclone, it will be a very rare event for this time of year as only 4 tropical cyclones have formed in the open Atlantic during the month of June. We can not ever recall seeing such a very impressive, well structured wave in the main development region this early in the season. Invest 92L is in a very conducive environment, at least for the next 2-3 days. We believe this is a sign that the tropical Atlantic could be busier than we've seen over the last several seasons. Furthermore, there are more strong tropical waves poised to move off of Africa over the next 7 to 10 days. 

If you are a resident or have interests in the eastern Caribbean, please check in often as new data comes in. Thank you for using our service, we appreciate all of our users. Enjoy your weekend.

We will have a new post later today.