WED 8/31/16 - A new discussion on TD 9 will be posted here by 9AM EDT.
We are tracking a couple of tropical depressions in the Atlantic, TD 8 near the Outer Banks of NC and TD 9 in the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Both systems have been unable to further organize over the last 24-36 hours as the environment near each has not been favorable to support strengthening.
TD 8 is located about 95 miles SSE of Cape Hatteras and it moving towards the NW. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of NC from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet as tropical storm conditions are expected to impact the warning area later this afternoon. However, this will be a low impact, short-lived event. There is still a chance that the depression may not achieve tropical storm status before it's close approach to NC (not expected to make landfall). Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected over far eastern NC, including the Outer Banks. Overall, this is a weak system and impacts will be very minor.
Our other depression, TD 9 is centered about 300 miles W of Key West Florida and is moving very slowly towards the W at 7 mph. There are no watches or warnings in effect for FL, but we do expect tropical storm or hurricane watches to be posted for portions of the FL Gulf coast later this morning.
TD 9's low level center became exposed overnight due to some westerly wind shear. All indications is that the wind shear should decrease over the next 2 days allowing TD 9 to intensify into a tropical storm. However, even as wind shear decreases, conditions are not ideal to allow much strengthening as there will be some dry air to the west of the system. Only gradual strengthening is forecasted by the NHC. Winds are expected to peak near 65 mph before it makes landfall Thursday near the Big Bend of FL. At this time, the chances of TD9 becoming a tropical storm are at about 80% and less than a 10% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall.
Regarding the NHC track below, anyone in the cone should monitor the progress of this system closely as it could affect the Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville areas on Thursday. Most of the rainfall and tropical storm force winds should be located on the eastern side of the storm upon landfall. As of this post, there's a 30-40% chance of tropical storm force wind impacting portions of north FL. Rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches can be expected through Friday morning over much of the FL peninsula, which may lead to flash flooding in some areas. Again, ,most of this will fall to the east of where the center makes landfall. Interests in central and northern FL, and SE GA should monitor the progress of this system.
We have issued "Elevated" Alert levels for portions of north FL. Please see the map and recommended action below.
A strong tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa and the NHC has designated it as Invest 92L. There is a 40% chance of development through the next 5 days. It will likely struggle to develop much like 99L did due to its fast forward motion and dry air in the eastern Atlantic. However, if the system can make it far west (models showing very little chance of a re-curve at this time) it will likely have a chance to develop before reaching the Caribbean Sea or the Bahamas in about a week. We have plenty of time to monitor this system and it poses no threat to land at this time. We will keep you updated on the progress of this system.
Our next post will be issued sometime on Wednesday. Thanks for using Hurricane Tracker and have a great Tuesday! If you would like to receive these updates the moment they are published, please click here to sign up for email updates.