There is some really good news to report this afternoon. Throughout the day today, Invest 99L has become further disorganized as upper level wind shear has really put a cap on thunderstorm development. The weak area of low pressure is moving towards the west-northwest and is weakening because of the lack of convection. It also appears the weak area of low pressure might run into Cuba and fizzle out. The chance of this system developing before it reaches the Bahamas or South Florida, have lowered dramatically this afternoon. We have lowered our alert level down to the low category for the Bahamas and South Florida (see image below). For those of you in the northern Gulf of Mexico we kept guarded alert levels due to the possibility it organizes once in the gulf.
It is still too early to completely write off the system as there is a chance it could try to organize again in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds and sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico appear to be favorable to support organization if the system survives over the next 2-3 days.
While the threat is diminishing, we urge everyone from the Bahamas through the entire gulf Coast to continue to keep an eye on the system in case it does try and re-organize. We suspect that the National Hurricane Center will continue to lower their development chances over the next few outlooks based on the recent trends in the computer models and the real-time satellite data.
Please listen to our audio update which can be found on the overview page for more in-depth information on the big developments today with this system. Thank you for using the Hurricane Tracker app and we will notify you asap of any big changes going forward. Have a great evening.
~Hurricane Tracker App Team