Overview: Tropical Storm Earl hasn't changed much in overall organization today, but it does appear that Earl may strengthen some overnight as the storm has slowed down and the environment is a little more conducive for strengthening. The NHC has increased their peak intensity forecast to 70 mph. Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches have been posted for Belize & portions of Mexico.
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Track: There is high confidence that Earl will track W-WNW over the next few days and make landfall sometime late tomorrow along the Belize coastline. A persistent ridge of high pressure still dominates the southern U.S. and the clockwise flow around that high will keep the system from gaining much latitude. No reliable model shows any indication of this ridge breaking down.
Intensity: Earl will likely be a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane when it reaches the coast tomorrow. The models continue to advertise the environment will continue to be favorable for Earl to intensify over the next 24 hours. Wind shear, dry air and cool waters will not be an issue. We see a 70% chance that Earl will reach hurricane status.
Impacts: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast of Honduras late tonight and will reach Belize and parts of Mexico tomorrow night and last through Thursday morning. Total rain amounts of 8-12" are expected along the path of Earl. Flash flooding and mudslides will be the biggest concerns. Storm surge is expected to be 2-4' feet, mainly to the north of where the center makes landfall. See our Alert Level map below if you are a resident or have an interest along the path of Earl. Please rush all preparations to completion by this evening.
Tropical Storm Earl poses no threat to the U.S. coastline:
Please stay tuned here at the Hurricane Tracker App for frequent updates on TS Earl throughout the rest of this week.
We highly recommend following our Twitter (hurrtrackerapp) for real time coverage as the system tracks towards Central America.
A new post will be issued if there any changes in the current forecast.
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