Forecast: The intensity of the storm will play an important role as to where the system ultimately tracks. At this time, the consensus is that it will strengthen some, which will allow it to gain enough altitude so that it gets picked up by an incoming trough thats forecasted to sweep across the western Atlantic next week (red track below). We think the final track will be just a little left of the official NHC track as shown above.
If the system were to get stronger than forecasted, then it would track more NW and out to sea (yellow track below).
Finally, if it has a hard time fighting off the dry air and stays a very weak storm, depression or even opens into a tropical wave, then the system could get farther west with time (possibly miss the trough) and then it would have to be watched more closely. Even so, the system would most likely dissipate before having a chance to threaten land. The chances of this system impacting land next week are around 2%.
Whats Next? All indications are the we are in for a busy stretch over the next several weeks as we enter the peak of the hurricane season. In fact, the NHC has already highlighted the next wave coming off of Africa. 20% chance of development over the next 5 days. Stay tuned for updates. There's even another system behind this one still located over Africa. Busy times ahead.
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