We are tracking Invest 91L, a surface trough of low pressure currently moving NW into the southern Gulf of Mexico. The system is rather disorganized today as conditions in the short term are not too favorable for development due to the presence of an upper level low pressure in the region. However, environmental conditions are expected to improve Monday into Tuesday and 91L could intensify into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Bill as it approaches the mid-upper TX Coast. The NHC says there is a 70% (high) chance of development. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system later today and again tomorrow to see if a tropical cyclone is forming.

Regardless of whether the system develops into a low-moderate tropical storm, heavy rains which may lead to flooding will be the main threat from this system. This will be an east-weighted system meaning all of the heavy rain and gusty winds will be near the center and to the east.

The track is pretty much a lock as the system rounds the western edge of a strong high pressure ridge situated over the SE US. Landfall will occur sometime Tuesday am along the mid-upper TX Gulf coast. Please review the graphic below for the anticipated track and projected rain fall totals. Also, this system will not quickly weaken once it moves inland as upper air conditions will be favorable for it to bring gusty winds and heavy rainfall amounts well inland into NE TX, SE OK & western AR.

If you are a resident or have interests in eastern TX & western LA, please follow the forecast closely over the next couple of days and have plans in place if flooding rains occur. We will be here at the Hurricane Tracker App with frequent updates up until landfall.

We highly recommend following our Twitter (hurrtrackerapp) for real time coverage as as Invest 91L heads into the southern Gulf. Receive our detailed discussions via email as soon as they are published, please tap here.

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