Sometimes in June the Gulf produces sloppy, wet systems. That is just what the models are showing early-mid next week in the western Gulf. In fact, the NHC is placing 60% odds of development within 5 days and we expect those to rise if model trends continue. A piece of energy is forecasted to move NW from the Yucatan and into the Gulf late this weekend into early next week. At a minimum, areas that have seen a lot of rain over the last few months will be in for quite a deluge as deep tropical moisture will lift northward. Particularly, SE TX and portions of Louisiana. It is very unlikely that a hurricane would form as conditions aren't favorable for anything over a 50-60 mph tropical storm. The main story will be heavy rain and flash flooding in areas that do not need anymore rain. Most of the rain and wind will be on the eastern side of the system. SE TX & SW LA will receive the brunt of the active weather.
Latest Audio Update - Updates each afternoon when there is an active Atlantic Basin system.
At this time, it appears conditions will be marginally favorable for a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Bill to form early next week. The waters in the western Gulf of Mexico are running above average for this time of year. Whether a tropical system forms or not, 4 to 8 inches of rain will be likely along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coastlines through the middle portions of next week. Our team currently places development chances at around 70%
All interests from Corpus Christi, TX to Mo should monitor this developing weather story over the next few days. We will return with another post later Sunday afternoon once more data is available. Thanks for using Hurricane Tracker.
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