10/1/15 - CAT 4 Hurricane Joaquin May Steer Away From The U.S.

The central Bahamas have been taking a beating today as CAT 4 (130 mph winds) Hurricane Joaquin slowly moves through the area, and the region can expect hurricane conditions to continue through tomorrow afternoon. This is truly a historic event for the central Bahamian Islands. We hope everyone is staying safe in the face of this very dangerous storm. Receive our detailed discussions via email as soon as they are published, please tap here

Joaquin should start moving to the north later today and now the last few model cycle trends suggest the storm may turn northeast and away from the U.S. Since Monday, the European model has been forecasting this solution and just about every other major model now agrees with that forecast. There is still some uncertainty as the atmosphere around Joaquin is very complex, but compared to yesterday, chances of a direct U.S. landfall are dropping quickly and we expect the NHC to adjust their track further eastward later today. Unfortunately, this means the threat for Bermuda seeing effects from Joaquin are increasing. Remain vigilant as models could swing back west, but it appears unlikely given what we are seeing in the latest trends and the steering pattern. We are now 70% confident that Joaquin will miss the U.S. east coast.

We can't fully write off a landfall until the NHC gives the all clear, but remain "Guarded" if you are anywhere from NC to Canada. Here is our latest 5 Day Alert Level & Long Range Impact Chances Maps:

Please stay tuned here at the Hurricane Tracker App for frequent updates on Joaquin throughout this week & weekend.

We highly recommend following our Twitter (hurrtrackerapp) for real time coverage as the new data comes in every 6 hours.

A new post will be issue sometime on Friday afternoon (if needed), usually before 5PM EDT. Please check the Real Time Feed for Joaquin on the storm page for frequent snippets from us as the data changes.

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