SAT 8/23 2AM EDT - Big Model Shifts/FL & SE US at Risk

The National Hurricane Center is now giving Invest 96L a high chance (90%) of development over the the next five days. There has been a MAJOR shift in the last 2 model cycles. It is appearing less & less likely that this storm will take a "quick" exit out to sea.

 8/20/14 2PM NHC Outlook

8/20/14 2PM NHC Outlook

The system is becoming better organized and the Hurricane Hunters have once again found a weak center. Invest 96L should continue to organize over the next 1-2 days as it passes just over or slightly north of Hispaniola and into the SE Bahamas. The future of this system will partly depend upon how much it interacts with the tall mountains of Hispaniola. It already looks like the terrain has slowed the storm down and is slowing development.

Heavy rains will be the primary concern over the northern Caribbean. Interests in the northern Caribbean, SE Bahamas, E Gulf Coast, E US Coast & Bermuda should pay very close attention to the future progress of this system as it may very likely become TS Cristobal within 12-24 hrs and the track is still uncertain. We should have a much better idea at some point over the weekend as to where the system will track. We really cannot rule any part of the coast out of harms way yet. (Latest EURO/GFS/HWRF models have shifted from a recurve to much closer to the US, some even showing landfalls). Lots of time watch. Here are the latest model plots, with many pointing towards the US this morning.

Our best advice is to look at the map below our team created (we update it once or twice a day). Our Alert Levels graphic will let you know if you are in a region that could be impacted by the system. The higher the number, the greater chance of being impacted in the long-range by the system. Alert Levels have dramatically increased for FL & the SE US based on the westward shift in the models. Please continue to check in a couple of times a day to get the very latest on the Invest as we will keep you updated as often as we can. (Please leave us a quick review in the App Store, we need to know how we are doing) Are you getting the information you need to stay informed? Thanks so much.