FRI 10/10 5PM EDT - STS Fay Has Formed/90L Likely To Develop

All of a sudden the tropics have decided to spring to life with 6 weeks remaining in the Atlantic hurricane season. Sub-tropical Depression 7 has been upgraded to Sub-tropical Storm Fay. The system will likely affect Bermuda late this weekend. A TS watch has been issued for Bermuda.

Also, we are tracking Invest 90L east of the Lesser Antilles which will be moving west over the next several days and potentially developing into the next named storm (Gonzalo). A trough over the western Atlantic is forecasted to be replaced by a ridge of high pressure and this pattern change should allow this system to track W-WNW generally towards land areas. Several days from now, the EURO model forecasts 90L to be just N of the Caribbean Islands on a track towards the Bahamas. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should pay close attention to 90L over the next several days as the more favored models are developing this system & tracking it WNW. We would place the odds of Invest 90L impacting the US at about 5%. Highly unlikely with the number of troughs that move through in OCT. Needless to say, this system will be watched/tracked very closely in Hurricane Tracker.

A third system in the far E Atlantic may also have a chance to develop, but it likely would be picked up by a trough in the long term. 6 more weeks left in the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.