9/18/17 - CAT 5 Maria Beginning To Impact The Caribbean While Jose Tracks Towards S New England

Note: At times, our team will write in-depth discussions on the tropics or systems below. Always visit the "Current Storms" section for the latest advisories and tracking maps on active systems.

Two storms in the Atlantic are about to impact two different areas of land. Hurricane Jose is headed for New England Tue/Wed, but won’t make landfall and Hurricane Maria is beginning to impact portions of the Lesser Antilles. 

Hurricane Jose: As the storm tracks toward cooler ocean waters and wind shear increases, it will gradually weaken as it begins to impact Southern New England Tuesday into Wednesday. The main threats associated with Jose will be the rain and the wind. Some locations, especially near Cape Cod may pick up around half a foot of rainfall. Winds may gust as high as 50-60 mph in southeastern Massachusetts. Those winds may cause scattered power outages, so make sure you are all stocked up on batteries water, non-perishables, gasoline for generators etc . Otherwise, the rest of Southern New England will get showers and gusts up to 20-40 mph. Also, some minor coastal flooding is possible with a storm surge up to one or two feet. By Thursday, the storm will begin to stall because there is no steering flow to bring it out to sea. Jose will likely sit off the Northeast coast as a weakening cyclone and become a remnant low by this weekend. Jose will likely cause a weakness in the steering flow allowing Maria to be pulled north likely away from the United States coast.

Current Watches/Warnings:

Hurricane Maria:

Short-Term Forecast: Hurricane Maria is the most concerning storm in the Atlantic at this time. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Maria to make landfall on Puerto Rico on Wednesday as a category 4 or 5 hurricane. If that were to happen, the entire island would deal with catastrophic damage. Tonight, Maria will move through the Lesser Antilles, near Dominica, as a 160 mph category 5 hurricane. The good news, if there is any good news with this storm, is that the center of Maria will likely miss the northern Leeward Islands that were devastated by Hurricane Irma. Then on Wednesday, the brunt of the storm will move into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. You need to prepare now. You only have until Tuesday evening to finish preparations! Later in the week, the Dominican Republic and Haiti will be impacted by rain and wind from Maria. It is not forecast to make landfall on Hispaniola, but they are in the NHC cone so it is definitely possible. As Maria passes near Hispaniola, the storm may take a more north-northwesterly direction instead of west-northwest. Either way, Turks and Caicos and the eastern Bahamian islands will likely be affected by Maria. Storm surge could be significant just like it was for Irma for these islands.

Maria went from an Invest to a CAT 5 hurricane in 48 hours.

Current Watches/Warnings:
 

Long-Range Forecast: The latest guidance is showing that Maria should turn east of the United States and into the open Atlantic thanks to Hurricane Jose creating a south > north steering flow for Maria. If Jose was not sitting of the coast of New England, Maria would then likely track WNW towards the SE U.S. Of course, with this being a long range outlook and more than a week away, it could still change and we will closely monitor the latest data and let you know if there is any shift in the track towards the east coast.

We will have another update as conditions warrant on Hurricanes Jose and Maria. -- Jackson Dill & Steve Parker, Hurricane Tracker Team 

9/17/17 - The Latest On Hurricane Jose & Hurricane Maria

Note: At times, our team will write in-depth discussions on the tropics or systems below. Always visit the "Current Storms" section for the latest advisories and tracking maps on active systems.

The Atlantic basin is very active with three named storms swirling over the ocean right now. There’s Hurricane Jose, Tropical Depression Lee, and now Hurricane Maria. There are now TS watches in effect from Delaware to Massachusetts and numerous watches and warnings in effect across the Caribbean due to Hurricane Maria. Both systems are likely to directly impact land over the coming days.

Hurricane Jose: Jose will impact parts of the U.S. East Coast this weekend and early next week. Even though it’s hundreds of miles off the Southeast coast, rip currents and elevated surf are impacting the region. It has begun its move to the north, propagating the waves with it. By the time we get to Tuesday & Wednesday, direct impacts may be felt from the coast of Delaware to the coast of Massachusetts. Expect showers and gusty winds greater than 50 mph, which may lead to downed trees and power lines. If you are located within the tropical storm watch area, we recommend preparing now for possible power outages this week.

Later in the week, there’s a lot of uncertainty whether Jose gets picked up by the jet stream and heads out to sea or lingers around off the Northeast coast. One thing for certain is that Jose will begin to weaken mid week as it moves over cooler waters located off the coast of New England. We will keep you updated as to the long term track of Jose, but the biggest impacts across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast U.S. will be Tuesday and Wednesday.

Here’s a look at the max wind gust forecast (mph) from the NWS for New England. 40-55 mph gusts Long Island > SE Massachusetts.

Tropical Depression Lee: Lee has been steadily weakening and is forecasted to become a remnant low within 48 hours. This system is no threat to land.

Hurricane Maria: This storm will be the highest impactful storm out of the three currently in the Atlantic because it will be the strongest and it will impact the Caribbean Islands that were already devastated by Hurricane Irma. There are numerous watches and warnings in effect, please see the full list below. Maria is forecasted to strengthen into a major hurricane in 3 days before reaching the U.S./British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Later on in this week, it will continue its west-northwest track as a major hurricane moving through the Greater Antilles, including the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Turks and Caicos. All of these islands need to prepare now for major impacts from this storm. Please read the latest NHC public advisory for all the expected impacts from Hurricane Maria.

Latest wind swath forecast from the NHC.

In the long-term, the United States & The Bahamas will need to monitor Hurricane Maria. With a blocking high pressure over the Atlantic, steering these storms toward the U.S., this storm definitely poses a risk to the Eastern Seaboard. At this time, we have no idea where this storm is headed this far out in time, but the entire United States coastline will need to monitor. The European ensemble members show a very large spread by next weekend, which is when Maria may be near the Bahamas. Many of the members do take Maria into the East Coast, but as you know this forecast will very likely change. It's important to note that if Hurricane Jose slows down or stalls off the New England coast it may create a south to north steering flow and could help Maria track into the open Atlantic. See the two scenarios below:

Hurricane Tracker App Long Range Outlook

Our latest video update on Jose & Maria:

We’ll another tropical update on all three of these storms this Monday. -- Jackson Dill, Hurricane Tracker Team