7/1/2024 - Discussion On The Forecast for Hurricane Beryl. Will There Be U.S. Impacts?
Hurricane Beryl caused devastating destruction earlier today across portions of the Windward Islands. Our best wishes go out to everybody who WAS affected by this intense hurricane today. We hope for a speedy recovery. Here's some of the pictures of damage coming out of the region today.
Beryl is going to continue as a major hurricane tracking west-northwest generally towards Jamaica, where there is a hurricane watch. There's also a tropical storm warning for the southern coast of Hispaniola. We expect impacts to this region in the central Caribbean beginning late Tuesday throughout the day on Wednesday. At this time, the NHC has the center tracking just south of Jamaica. We have included our wind swath & probabilities graphic below from our premium content section which is updated every six hours. At this time, Jamaica has around an 80% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds and a 30% chance of receiving hurricane force winds.
As the storm nears Jamaica, it's going to begin encountering some upper level wind shear. The official forecast calls for the hurricane to weaken back to non-major status and eventually become a tropical storm once it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. Cancun, Cozumel and portions of Belize may experience tropical storm or hurricane conditions on Friday. No watches or warnings have been issued for the Yucatan Peninsula yet.
By Friday, the storm is going to enter the Bay of Campeche and it remains to be seen if the system will turn north towards Texas/LA or keep tracking west towards Mexico as prior systems this season have done so far. Some of the modeling is showing a deep trough coming down the central United States early next week, which could erode the high-pressure ridge across the south central United States, which could allow Beryl to turn northwest towards the Texas or LA coastlines. In fact, about 1/3 of the European ensemble models show this possibility today. See graphics below. Other models, such as the Canadian and the Icon have shown similar outcomes as of late. So, we are just going to continue to monitor this system as the intensity of the hurricane is going to be very important. A stronger storm than forecast may be more likely to feel a “weakness” and turn more towards the north or northwest, while a weaker storm may track into Mexico. It’s still too soon to know which outcome is going to verify as we are still a week away from any potential U.S. impacts Please stay tuned for further updates. Thank you so much for using the Hurricane Tracker App will be back with another update as conditions warrant. Thank you.
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