Today marks the beginning of the 2024 eastern Pacific season and the beginning of 6 hourly seven day tropical outlooks from the NHC for the eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins. Those are accessible via the “Outlook” tab down below in the scrolling dock for each basin. NHC outlooks are issued every 6 hours at 2AM, 8AM, 2PM and 8PM EDT. An audio update of this post is located below.

We have an area of possible development to watch the next 7 days as we begin the eastern Pacific season. Right now, there’s a 30% chance of development south of Mexico and it should remain offshore.

The first outlook for the Atlantic Basin shows all is quiet at the moment. We could see development during the first 2 weeks of June once wind shear decreases. The waters are plenty warm enough already for development.

The GEFS and other models show wind shear decreasing as we move into June. Less deep reds and oranges on the map mean weaker wind shear which may allow for some development in early June.

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