No news has been good news, but we’ve been watching. Lets face it, the models the last month have been outright terrible - especially the GFS! It’s been 40 years since no named storm has formed between 7/3 - 8/27! Time to wake up we’ve got something meaningful to track!

The lead wave in the Caribbean which the NHC has kept at 20% dev chance is not likely to develop. There’s little convection associated with it and conditions are not presently favorable. Pretty much a nothing burger here. GFS has an obsession with it. Not buying it!

The wave near 35W has the most potential over the next 10 days. 5 day dev chances are currently 30% and there’s continued model support - especially from the EURO/GFS ensembles. Look for this to develop in 5-8 days.

Upper level steering conditions in the medium - long range are concerning if this one does develop. High pressure may develop north of the system this weekend and help it track towards the NE Carib or Bahamas around Labor Day. We have all week to watch, nothing imminent.

Models have been consistent with this system and there’s enough of a signal there that we have to watch this 35W wave. It should be designated an invest soon by the NHC. 30% chances and we expect that to increase the next few days. Ready to start tracking again?! Busy next few weeks on tap!