The tropical waves we’ve been watching in the eastern Atlantic, dubbed 92L and 93L, have both formed into tropical storms as of the latest update from the NHC (5 PM EDT 9/7/20). The system farther west (formerly 92L) is now TS Paulette, while the system farther east (formerly 93L) is now TS Rene.

Satellite imagery suggests that both systems are doing fairly well this afternoon, though Paulette’s deep convection is displaced a bit northeast of the center and Rene is lacking any really intense thunderstorm activity. This is partially because tropical convective activity waxes and wanes with the diurnal cycle, and the time of day least favorable for thunderstorm activity is the late afternoon/early evening. I suspect we’ll see both systems become a bit more polished tonight and tomorrow morning.

Paulette will face significant challenges starting tomorrow evening as it moves towards an upper-level low over the central Atlantic. That upper-level low will push the storm’s thunderstorm activity northeast of the low-level center (we’re already seeing that a bit this afternoon) and will drive some dry air into the circulation. As a result, I don’t expect Paulette to strengthen significantly over the next few days. It may even weaken significantly (back to a tropical depression or tropical wave).

Rene’s environment is looking much better, though some mid-level dry air might slow the system down a bit. Rene is the system much more likely to become a hurricane within a few days.

Where are these storms headed? Both will move west-northwest or perhaps northwest during this week. What happens after that is much more uncertain as each system tries to escape into the open Atlantic ahead of some upper-level troughs. Whether or not the storms are successful in their attempts to turn north is yet to be determined. Any impacts to the US, should any occur (remember: low probability at the moment) wouldn’t be for another week or more, so I’m not concerned about either system as of now.

We’ll have more updates on both systems, and another that’s expected to develop in this region a couple days from now, later this week.

-Jack

Posted on 9/1/2020 by Jack Sillin with the Hurricane Tracker App. These posts are meant to provide our users with a detailed analysis of the tropics as conditions warrant and may not be updated on a daily basis. For the latest up to date storm information, always go to “Current Storms” and select a system for the latest information.

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