Tropics Waking Up As We Enter a New Month

Monday 9/3/18 - We will have a new discussion this afternoon. See our 9/1/18 discussion below:

We are entering the peak of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. It has been relatively quiet thus far, but the tropics are quickly becoming active and there are currently two systems we are watching.

TS Florence: Over the next several days, Florence will become a formidable tropical storm and stay out over the open waters of the Atlantic. By next weekend, Florence will likely encounter a fork in the road. It may turn north into the open Atlantic or travel further westward under a building ridge of high pressure (see image below). This far out, it's impossible to forecast exactly where Florence will track. All residents and interests in Bermuda, the eastern US and SE Canada should monitor the progress of Florence in the long term. Stay tuned for updates as we get more data on the future of Florence.

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12Z EURO ensemble tracks from 9/1/18. A very wide cone at the end of the forecast.

12Z EURO ensemble tracks from 9/1/18. A very wide cone at the end of the forecast.

PTC 7: Closer to home, we are monitoring a strong tropical wave currently located over the SE Bahamas. As of this writing, the NHC gives this system an 90% chance of development through the next 5 days. This system will track into the eastern Gulf of Mexico this week, where it may become Tropical Storm Gordon. A favorable upper level environment and very warm ocean temps should allow this system to try and develop, models currently track this system towards SE LA and then west towards Texas mid-late next week. It could be a slow mover and drop several inches of rain from LA to TX. We have issued low-guarded 5 day Alert Levels below and residents and interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system closely over the next several days.

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9/1/18 12Z EURO EPS shows an 80% chance of a depression forming in the Gulf during the next 5 days.

9/1/18 12Z EURO EPS shows an 80% chance of a depression forming in the Gulf during the next 5 days.

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Beyond Florence and possible Gordon in the Gulf, we may be tracking 2-3 strong African waves over the next few weeks. Conditions appear favorable a busy September in the tropics. Stay tuned to Hurricane Tracker for all the latest information.