Note: At times, our team will write in-depth discussions on the tropics or systems below. Always visit the "Current Storms" section for the latest advisories and tracking maps on active systems.
The tropics are heating up again now that we have Tropical Storm Jose, Tropical Depression Fourteen, and Invest 96L. I want to focus on Jose because this storm poses the greatest risk to land in the short-term.
The National Hurricane Center’s forecast cone continues to shift westward, closer to the U.S. East Coast. The latest guidance as a whole suggests that Jose will at least make a close pass along the east coast, but some models are showing a possible landfall somewhere north of the Outer Banks.
As Jose gains latitude, it will move over cooler waters. This is when Jose may transition from a tropical cyclone to an extratropical storm. In this process, the wind field often expands. Therefore, the coast may very well experience tropical-storm-force winds even if Jose doe not make landfall.
The majority of the models still take Jose out to sea after getting very close to New England, but some of them do have Jose making landfall somewhere on the Mid-Atlantic or New England coast. There is still plenty of uncertainty, but if you live between the Outer Banks through SE Canada, I would prepare now in case the track shifts more west. Stock up on some extra water, food, and fuel--It’s always good to be prepared just in case. Despite the uncertainty in the track, I am certain that there will be large waves of up to 10 feet along much of the U.S. East Coast and a high rip current risk. We have issued low 5 Day Alert Levels for this region. See below.
We’ll have another update as conditions warrant on Tropical Storm Jose.
-- Jackson Dill, Hurricane Tracker Team