Wed 9/9/15 - Potential Is There For A Gulf Storm Next Week

The keyword here is potential. We have been watching the computer models very closely over the last several days as they have been hinting at the potential for tropical development somewhere in the western Gulf of Mexico late this weekend into early next week. In fact, the European model, which is highly regarded as the best model, has been very consistent run after run developing a tropical cyclone next week in the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS American has also been hinting at possible development, although not as often or aggressive as the EURO has been. This weekend, a cold front will be dipping down into the Gulf of Mexico and we will be watching for signs of organization in the western Gulf along the tail end of the front. Anytime you have a cold front dipping this far south this time of year over very warm waters, it's always possible for development to occur. The water temperatures in the Gulf are some of the warmest on the globe running in the mid to upper 80s and even 90° in a few spots. At this time, we believe there's a 40% chance of at least a tropical depression forming somewhere in the western Gulf of Mexico next week. Even if development does not occur, there is the potential for flooding rainfall along portions of the TX/LA coastlines as deep, tropical moisture is drawn northward from the Bay of Campeche. Please realize this is not a forecast, but an Outlook as we are just trying to give our users a heads up on this potential. Also, it's impossible to know at this point what the intensity would be, or what the exact track would be if something does develop. We encourage all residents and interests in the yellow shaded area on the map below to keep a close eye on the tropics over the next several days and to check in here for updates as new data becomes available. We will be here with periodic updates on potential development as new data comes in. Receive our detailed discussions via email as soon as they are published, please tap here

 Run after run over the last few days the EURO model has been forecasting development.

Run after run over the last few days the EURO model has been forecasting development.

 The GFS does forecast an area of low shear underneath an upper level high pressure area over the western Gulf next week.

The GFS does forecast an area of low shear underneath an upper level high pressure area over the western Gulf next week.

Please stay tuned here at the Hurricane Tracker App for updates on this development potential.

We highly recommend following our Twitter (hurrtrackerapp) for real time coverage of new model data as it's published.

A new post will be issued sometime on Friday afternoon, usually by 5PM EDT.

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