10/2/13 6PM EDT - TS Karen Is Likely To Form Tonight & Move Towards N Gulf

Thunderstorms have become more concentrated with 97L and we could have a tropical storm by the end of the day today. Appears the Hurricane Hunters are finding westerly winds with #97L. Upgrade directly to TS Karen is imminent sometime before the night is over.

 The most likely scenario is for a moderate (50-60 mph) tropical storm late this weekend somewhere between SE LA & the FL Panhandle.

Most computer models are developing this system into a tropical depression or weak TS.

Upper level winds will become unfavorable for intensification in the central & northern Gulf of Mexico which should limit strengthening and keep the system in check. Most of the rain will be on the east side of the system.

The Hurricane Hunters will likely investigate the disturbance today. Residents along the Gulf coast from SE LA to FL should monitor this system closely.