Good morning everyone,

Tropical Storm Eta is moving west of the Florida Keys this morning after making landfall last night. Though the storm’s center is now offshore and moving farther from Florida, extreme rainfall continues over southern parts of the state including the Miami-Dade area. Rain in southern Florida will gradually taper off today as Eta’s center gets tugged southwest back towards Cuba. That said, with over a foot of rain on the ground, any additional showers have the potential to significantly exacerbate flooding issues.

Satellite imagery shows Eta still relatively disorganized with the most intense thunderstorm activity (orange/red) located in the outer band over Florida rather than near the storm’s center. This has kept the system’s intensity in check for now. As the upper-level low currently sitting above the system dissipates, expect Eta to redevelop convection near its core. This should allow for a gradual intensification trend tonight and tomorrow, by the storm should reach hurricane strength northwest of Cuba.

Eta is then expected to turn around and head back towards Florida later in the week in response to an area of low pressure moving into the Mississippi Valley. While the storm will likely be moving towards the coast as a hurricane, we’re not yet sure if it will retain that strength all the way until landfall. There are some signs that shear and dry air might pick up again ahead of the new trough. Either way, residents along the west coast of Florida need to continue paying attention to Eta even though the storm is drifting away from you this morning.

-Jack